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The South China Sea’s Endless Endgame: Can the Code of Conduct Survive a New Era of Great Power Rivalry?

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Ultimately, the South China Sea is much more than a dispute over maritime rights or natural resources; it serves as a mirror reflecting the broader transformation of the global order as it transitions from a unipolar moment to intense great power competition. ASEAN member states utilize this diplomatic arena to address domestic security and national politics while maintaining regional geopolitical equilibrium. For over two decades, the quest for a binding Code of Conduct has been the diplomatic centerpiece of Southeast Asia. But as geopolitical tectonic plates shift, the region’s grand bargain remains stuck in neutral. The journey to forge a "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" (COC) has been a masterclass in diplomatic endurance. Dating back to the 2002 "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties" (DOC), ASEAN and China have spent more than twenty years pushing negotiating frameworks and hashing out a Single Draft Negotiating Text—currently mired in its third rea...