Shielded yet Isolated: The Shifting Balance of Power in the Middle East
Executive Summary:
In today's Middle Eastern theater, a comparative analysis of the balance
of power between Iran and Israel reveals Israel’s growing strategic isolation.
As long as hawkish Zionism continues to dictate Israeli policy, the prospect of
Saudi Arabia officially normalizing diplomatic relations remains highly
improbable.
1. Historical Context: The Twin Pillars of U.S. Hegemony
Historically, the geopolitical architecture of the Middle East rested on
two main pillars: Saudi Arabia and Israel. Acting as the region's primary power
brokers, both nations operated under the overarching security umbrella of the
United States, which served as the central hegemon coordinating regional
interests. This dynamic created a complex, often paradoxical, strategic
environment.
- The
Eight-Decade Saudi-U.S. Alliance:
Rooted in the landmark 1945 Quincy
Agreement, this alliance has long been a cornerstone of Middle Eastern
politics. The U.S. committed to guaranteeing the security of the Saudi royal
family and the Persian Gulf, in exchange for reliable access to Saudi Arabia’s
vast hydrocarbon resources and the integration of the petrodollar system.
- The Lifeline
Bond Between Israel and the U.S.:
Conversely, since Israel’s founding in
1948, Washington has served as its paramount benefactor, providing
indispensable military hardware and diplomatic cover. This unwavering backing
ensured Israel’s survival through multiple conventional wars with neighboring
Arab states and Egypt. It also enabled Israel to systematically expand its
territorial control—culminating in the U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as its
capital. However, this unchecked expansion has come at the cost of deep,
enduring grievances across the wider Arab world.
Despite profound ideological rifts and a history of warfare, the modern
paradigm eventually shifted. Both Riyadh and Jerusalem came to recognize their
mutual alignment under U.S. guardianship. This unspoken understanding prevented
a total fracture in Arab-Israeli relations and laid the covert groundwork for
future diplomatic maneuvers.
2. Pragmatic Realignment: The Evolution of Saudi Posture
At first glance, it seems deeply paradoxical that Saudi Arabia recently
restored ties with Iran (Israel’s chief adversary) while maintaining a
staunchly critical stance on the Palestinian issue. However, a deeper analysis
reveals that Riyadh is executing a calculated policy of "strategic
autonomy" and "flexible diplomacy," engaging both directly and
indirectly with Israel to safeguard its own economic and security interests.
This shift is most clearly articulated by Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman (MBS), the architect of modern Saudi foreign policy:
- 2018: MBS sparked a
diplomatic paradigm shift by stating that Israel has a "right"
to its own land and that Jews have the right to a nation-state. He
emphasized:
"Our country does not have a
problem with the Jewish people. Our Prophet Muhammad married a Jewish woman...
Today, there are quite a few Jewish people living in Saudi Arabia, coming from
both America and Europe." This statement represented a
monumental departure from historical Arab rhetoric, implicitly recognizing
Israel's sovereignty.
- March 2022: MBS reiterated
his desire to see an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, signaling
that Saudi Arabia no longer views Israel strictly as an adversary.
Instead, he expressed hope that the two nations could eventually become
partners with shared interests across various sectors.
3. The Abraham Accords: Transactional Normalization vs. The Palestinian Cause
In recent years, several Arab states have shifted toward normalization
with Israel, culminating in the Abraham Accords of August 2020. The UAE
and Israel established formal diplomatic relations, followed swiftly by
Bahrain.
The Rhetoric of Coexistence
The Accords were framed around a shared heritage, noting that Arabs and
Jews are both "descendants of Abraham." The diplomatic text
emphasized that the Middle East is home to Muslims, Jews, Christians, and other
faiths, and that a spirit of coexistence based on mutual understanding is
essential for regional progress.
The Reality on the Ground
However, the Accords faced severe backlash for decoupling Arab-Israeli
normalization from the resolution of the Palestinian issue. While diplomatic
and commercial ties expanded, Israel simultaneously accelerated its settlement
expansion in the West Bank. This raised a profound and painful question across
the Arab world: For nations that historically stood united to defend
Palestine to now shake hands with Israel, does this constitute a betrayal of
the Palestinian cause?
Broadly speaking, Arab nations are engaging in strategic hedging. By maintaining functional relationships with both Israel and Iran, they aim to diffuse regional tensions and prevent catastrophic wars. This marks a significant departure from the old era, where global superpowers utilized "divide and conquer" strategies that fractured regional actors (as seen in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen). Today, Arab states are recalculating their survival strategies based on pragmatic national interests rather than pure ideology.
4. Riyadh’s Strategic Red Lines: The Palestinian Prerequisite
While smaller Gulf states have moved forward, the regional heavyweight,
Saudi Arabia, has withheld official normalization. Riyadh acknowledges the
immense economic and security benefits of ties with Israel but has established non-negotiable
prerequisites centered on Palestinian justice:
1.
The Two-State Solution: The establishment
of a sovereign, independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, in strict
accordance with international law.
2.
Adherence to the 1967 Borders: The total
withdrawal of Israeli forces from territories occupied during the 1967 Six-Day
War.
3.
East Jerusalem as the Capital: Recognition of East
Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine, alongside strict guarantees for the
protection and preservation of Islamic holy sites.
4.
Cessation of Aggression: An immediate end to
Israel's territorial expansion and violence, which Riyadh views as a direct
sabotage of peace efforts.
Riyadh maintains that without a credible, just framework for Palestine,
formal normalization is strategically futile—a reality they believe Washington
ultimately understands.
5. Structural Impediments: The Illusion of Imminent Normalization
Given current political realities, the likelihood of Israel accepting
Saudi conditions is virtually zero, primarily due to two structural
impediments:
Impediment 1: Irreversible Facts on the Ground
Demanding a return to the 1967 borders is a geopolitical impossibility at
this juncture. Over decades, Israel has embedded hundreds of thousands of
settlers deep within the West Bank. These populations have built permanent
infrastructure and communities; their displacement is politically unfeasible
for any Israeli government. With settlement expansion continuing today, Israel
cannot fulfill this foundational Saudi condition, leaving normalization
deadlocked.
Impediment 2: Ideological Gridlock and
the "Greater Israel" Paradigm
The driving force behind Israel’s state policy is right-wing Zionism,
which posits that the biblical lands of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank)
belong exclusively to the Jewish people. This faction views the land as
indivisible and insists on maintaining a Jewish demographic majority. This
ideology fuels the aspiration for a "Greater Israel," driving
continuous territorial expansion. With this ideology holding significant sway
over the ruling coalition, expecting a voluntary withdrawal from occupied
territories contradicts the core convictions of the Israeli leadership.
6. The New Geopolitical Calculus: Israel’s Shielded Isolation
The regional balance of power underwent a seismic shift when China
successfully brokered the restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia
and Iran.
This reconciliation between the two preeminent Muslim powers (Sunni and
Shia) allowed Arab states to seize the strategic initiative, while the
U.S. and Israel were caught off guard, forced into a defensive and reactive
posture.
When evaluating today's geopolitical landscape:
- Iran has
successfully broken through its diplomatic isolation, expanding its
alliances and maintaining functional terms with most Arab nations.
- Israel, conversely,
is experiencing acute diplomatic attrition. The refusal of a regional
titan like Saudi Arabia to recognize it leaves Jerusalem increasingly
marginalized.
This pressing reality forced the U.S. government to aggressively push for
Saudi inclusion in the Abraham Accords to stabilize the region. However,
Washington acknowledges the steep climb ahead. U.S. officials have openly noted
that Israel’s ongoing settlement expansion and alterations to the status quo of
holy sites directly undermine the viability of a two-state solution.
Conclusion
Ultimately, Israel exists in a state of tactical comfort but strategic isolation. While it remains securely shielded by unwavering U.S. military and diplomatic umbrellas, and maintains covert security ties with a few Arab states, the broader Middle Eastern equation has fundamentally changed. Israel is increasingly surrounded by a chilling diplomatic wall—one that will remain impenetrable until it can resolve the intractable variable known as Palestine.
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References:
1. Abraham Accord signing: top
quotes from the signing ceremony. (2020, September 16). The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved from https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/two-states-settlements-not-part-of-israel-deals-with-uae-bahrain-642424
2. Blinken takes aim at Israeli
settlements; says US will press ahead with Israel-Saudi normalization. (2023,
June 5). AP. Retrieved from https://apnews.com/article/us-israel-palestinians-saudi-arabia-ccc8da5992301d9a95a4be29f1860808
3. Israel and the Kingdom of
Bahrain to establish 'full diplomatic relations,' Trump says. (2020,
September 11). CNN. Retrieved from
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/11/politics/israel-bahrain-trump/index.html
4. Mohammed bin Salman on Iran,
Israel, US and future of Saudi Arabia: Full transcript. (2022, March 3).
Al Arabiya. Retrieved
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Arab countries stress the importance of strengthening joint Arab action based
on foundations, values, common interests and one destiny. (2023, May 19). Saudi
Press Agency. Retrieved from https://www.spa.gov.sa/68a3f8bca6a
6. Saudi Crown Prince recognizes
Israel's right to exist. (2018, April 3). FRANCE 24. Retrieved from
http://www.france24.com/en/20180403-saudi-arabia-israel-crown-prince-right-homeland-exist
7. Saudi Crown Prince: Iran's
Supreme Leader 'Makes Hitler Look Good'. (2018, April 2). The Atlantic.
Retrieved from
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/04/mohammed-bin-salman-iran-israel/557036/
8. Saudi FM: Normalization with
Israel would have benefits, but less without two states. (2023, June 8). Times
of Israel. Retrieved from https://www.timesofisrael.com/saudi-fm-normalization-with-israel-would-have-benefits-but-less-without-two-states/
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