ISIS Is Not Dead and May "Never Die": From the "Islamic State" to a Borderless Terrorist Network
As long as the political, social, and economic environments in the Middle East and other regions remain fragile, and as long as the world contains "failed states," ISIS will remain hidden in the shadows—nurturing its ideology, awaiting favorable conditions, and standing ready to thrust itself back into the global spotlight whenever the right opportunity arises.
Introduction: Although the "Islamic State" (ISIS), which once
occupied massive territories in the Middle East, has collapsed, the group has
not vanished along with its geographical borders. Instead, it is adapting from
being a "city-seizing army" into a "covert underground network
and a global franchise system." Meanwhile, the counter-terrorism
operations led by the US and its allies are facing a critical strategic turning
point, as shifting global politics and troop drawdowns fundamentally alter the
equation of the war on terror.
1. The Mutation of ISIS: From Syria and Iraq to a Global Franchise Network
Looking back to 2019, when ISIS lost
its final stronghold in the Syrian village of Baghuz and its supreme leader,
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed, many assessed that the group was finished. In
reality, ISIS employed a "decentralization" strategy to mutate
and survive.
- Reducing Reliance on a Single Leader While Maintaining
Structure: Despite the targeted killings
of several consecutive ISIS supreme leaders in recent years (including
events in 2022 and 2023), the group has proven highly adept at rapidly
replacing them through the "Shura Council" mechanism.
This has allowed its command structure to remain continuously operational.
- Shrinking Core, Sprouting Branches: Currently, the core leadership in Iraq and Syria has
downscaled into "covert cells." The remaining fighter
count is estimated at around 3,000 – 5,000 (down from a peak of over
18,000). However, they have instead thrived and expanded their influence
through affiliated networks in other regions.
- New Threats from ISIS-K and the African Continent: The most concerning variable today is ISIS-K
(Khorasan), which is deeply entrenched in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The group clearly demonstrated its trans-regional strike capabilities with
the 2024 Moscow mass shooting. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of ISIS in
Africa (the Sahel region, Somalia, and Mozambique) is turning the
continent into the group's new primary battlefield.
2. Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR): Strategic Turning Point and Crossroads
Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR),
the US-led international coalition, is reaching a historic strategic turning
point.
- Transition in Iraq:
The US and Iraqi governments have reached an agreement to gradually phase
out the military mission of the OIR coalition in Iraq. This will shift the
framework toward "bilateral security cooperation" focused
heavily on capacity building.
- The Unfinished Mission in Syria: While Iraq undergoes this transition, the mission in
Syria continues in order to support the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a
Kurdish-led militia.
- The Dependency Trap:
The primary reason the US cannot fully withdraw is that local partners
still lack readiness in certain dimensions:
- The Iraqi Military:
Although their counter-terrorism capabilities have improved
significantly, they remain heavily reliant on the US for Airborne
Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) and advanced
logistical support.
- The SDF:
They remain the primary partner in Syria but are currently flanked by
multifaceted threats, including persistent ISIS attacks and severe
military pressure from Turkey.
3. Syria: Al-Hol Camp and the Security Time Bomb
In Syria, ISIS avoids direct
confrontations with US troops, instead exploiting the vast Badiya Desert and
northeastern provinces (such as Dayr az-Zawr and Raqqah) as strongholds for
asymmetric warfare, launching ambushes against Syrian government forces and the
SDF.
The most alarming threat in Syria
today is not on the battlefield, but rather the "detention center time
bomb."
📍 Detention Centers and Ideological Incubators in Syria
- ISIS Fighter Prisons:
Holding roughly 9,000 - 10,000 foreign and local fighters, these
facilities remain primary targets for ISIS prison-break attacks.
- Al-Hol Refugee Camp:
The concentrated settlement for the families of ISIS fighters.
- Population:
Decreased from 70,000 to approximately 40,000+ individuals (driven by
repatriation pressures).
- Demographics:
Over 60% are children and youth.
- Risk:
This camp is widely recognized as the most terrifying "incubator for
the next generation of ISIS."
Although the US has pressured
countries of origin to repatriate their citizens for prosecution, the process
remains painfully slow due to internal security and political concerns within
each nation. This is compounded by the Assad government's economic crisis,
which creates a vacuum where ISIS can weaponize poverty to hire and recruit new
members. Meanwhile, Turkish military operations along the border often force
the SDF to redeploy for self-defense, repeatedly creating a "security
vacuum" that ISIS exploits to infiltrate and reconstitute itself.
4. Iraq: Asymmetric Warfare Under the Shadow of Forests and Mountains
In Iraq, ISIS has completely
devolved into a covert underground terrorist group. They have abandoned efforts
to seize major cities, instead scattering into rugged terrains like the Hamrin
Mountains, the Anbar desert, and the "Grey Zones"—disputed
borderlands between the federal Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG) where law enforcement is weak.
- Assassination Tactics and Psychological Warfare: They focus on low-footprint, high-impact attacks such
as improvised explosive devices (IEDs), assassinations of community
leaders, and nighttime extortion of local businesses.
- Support Driven by Fear: Sunni villagers in certain areas still harbor or conceal ISIS hiding spots. This is no longer driven by ideological conviction as it was in the past, but by "fear" of intimidation and a deep sense of alienation from the Shia-led central Iraqi government.
5. The Iran Variable: A Strategic Dilemma
Iran-backed militias (the Axis of
Resistance) in Iraq and Syria have played a major role in clearing ISIS out of
the border desert regions. At the same time, however, these groups are direct
adversaries of the United States.
- Distracting Conflicts: Fueled by broader Middle East tensions, these militias
have frequently pivoted to targeting US bases with drones and missiles.
- Windfall Benefits for ISIS: When the US and coalition forces are forced to
redirect their focus and resources toward self-defense against Iran-backed
groups, the pressure to hunt down and eliminate ISIS temporarily eases.
This creates a "strategic dilemma" that provides the
terrorist network with much-needed breathing room.
6. Conclusion: Why Will ISIS "Never Die"?
The reason ISIS persists is that it
has transformed from a "physical army" into a deeply entrenched "ideological
concept" (an ultra-extremist mindset).
1.
Unresolved Root
Causes: Sectarian conflicts, the perceived
marginalization of Sunni Arabs, rampant poverty, and severe governance
deficits all serve as "excellent fertilizer" that allows ISIS to
continuously find new recruits.
2.
Adapting to the
Digital Era: Modern-day ISIS utilizes advanced
end-to-end encrypted communication applications and raises funds through
cryptocurrency, making it increasingly difficult to sever their financial
lifelines.
As long as the political, social,
and economic environments in the Middle East and other regions remain fragile,
and as long as the world contains "failed states," ISIS will
remain hidden in the shadows—nurturing its ideology, awaiting favorable
conditions, and standing ready to thrust itself back into the global spotlight
whenever the right opportunity arises.
